Does Russia-China rapprochement make Ukraine and Taiwan communicating vessels?

Dionysis Pantis* After about 28 months the conflict in Ukraine continues and the Taiwan issue is now entering an extremely critical period. A period that is increasingly reminiscent ... of Ukraine before 24from February. We have said on many occasions from the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (or whatever anyone wants to call it) that this war will be a geopolitical accelerator of changes that will challenge Western European sovereignty..

I think this has already been seen, but perhaps the planet is now entering an even more rapid acceleration of tectonic geopolitical changes. The Putin - Xi Jinping meeting on 16 May 2024 with the lengthy (and detailed and extremely interesting) joint communiqué issued at the conclusion of the talks, but also the military exercise of the air blockade of the island with the characteristic title (especially the end letter indicating ... periodicity) Sword 2024A (which warns us to expect B, C etc.) clearly and definitely states that it will be repeated periodically until the end of the exercises is chosen and a decision is taken to attempt the ... real thing, which is inevitable, imminent and ... stated. At the same time, the West, after the failure of the much-publicised "Ukrainian counter-offensive", is increasingly talking about rhetoric of controlled escalation. There are now calls for Ukraine's "disengagement" in defined strikes within Russian territory (at bases from which Russian missile/air or other attacks originate) The two sources of tension, namely Ukraine and Taiwan, one existing, the other imminent, forthcoming, are now linked in some way. China openly warns: imminent (also defined, albeit often in half-words) escalation of the West and NATO in Ukraine, the green light to independent Ukraine for attacks within Russian territory on bases where Russian attacks (missile, air) or troops are organized, planned and launched, within Russia may lead to the changing the intensity of China's engagement and broadening its support for Russia. China is making it clear that it cannot tolerate a crushing of Russia that puts it in existential danger. That is, some of the purchase of raw materials, expansion of the interconnection infrastructure between the two countries (bridges, rail or highway links, energy transmission pipelines, transfer of technology and components incorporating advanced technology (e.g. microchips and others), spare parts that can also be used by the Russian war industry for essential ammunition or weapons that are forwarded to Russian troops in Ukraine can now be reached in the immediate and direct supply without restrictions of Chinese war material necessary and critical to the Russian forces to face the new challenges on the Ukrainian front. There is no need to analyse the significance of such a development, given China's unique industrial production capacity in the world. China knows that such a development could (with very strong probability) lead to advanced tough sanctions that will decisively contribute to further disconnecting the economies of China and the West. It also knows with strong probability that this development may lead, for at least a period of time, to very damaging for China's export trade, denying it access to the Pacific Ocean and its international shipping lanes. But he preaches that is now ready to take on such a high-risk venture. In addition, China has stated that the only reason it has not yet attempted to regain control of Taiwan Island, or the degree of control over the island that it will choose based solely on its own objectives, and in the "China Seas" in general, is solely and exclusively for avoiding international sanctions and economic consequences. In particular, as far as Taiwan is concerned, it considers that it is fully covered by the UN General Assembly Resolution 2758/1971 which recognises its rights to the island. These are, of course, legal arguments, which as such are useful in justifying an action, but they do not determine the decisions taken, not only in the case of China, but also more broadly, I would say, with no significant exceptions. These decisions are, of course, made on geopolitical criteria and ultimately on the only, at the end of the day (or night as others from the East threaten closer to us) determinant of international relations, which is none other than the power factor. China considers that the preparations/conditions for such a one-way operation have been completed, i.e. it is a modern-day Rubicon crossing (the second revisionist ... crossing of the now ideal river after the Russian attack on Ukraine). Its accumulated power justifies it. Militarily it declares itself ready. The plans are complete and almost ... public. Besides, according to their estimates, there is not even a need to blockade Taiwan, although this is perfectly feasible. All that is needed is destruction by missile attacks & on short notice, all the ports on the island (2η missile air bombardment phase) and then ensuring that it will not be possible to repair them operationally through a combination of the air superiority they will provide and the simultaneous use of huge swarms drones (UAVs), which will patrol the damaged facilities (in particular port infrastructure) and attack and destroy those who attempt to repair the damage (3η phase). It is noteworthy that Taiwan depends on over 90 % of energy supplies from abroad and over 601 % for its food needs. Given the above data, it is likely to be forced to surrender or capitulate under negotiations that will satisfy China within one and a half to two months. The Chinese offensive is "guaranteed" by its technological and numerical superiority in missile technology and drones creating chaos on the island. The numbers, comparisons of China - Taiwan forces, are so overwhelming. The only deterrent, as we have said, is sanctions and in particular the economic impact of the operation. With the aerial blockade exercises (1η phase), HOWEVER slowly - slowly or quickly - quickly, (the decision of ... China), everyone will understand that Taiwan is under a semi-siege. A fact that necessarily increases economic uncertainty and ... insurance costs. The Chinese leadership (military-political) has made the assessment that the reforms planned and implemented by the US in readjusting the deployment of its military forces in the Pacific Ocean, through the Force Design 2030 programme and other initiatives, particularly with regard to the agile, fast-moving Marine Corps units and the capabilities of the ... invisible movement capabilities, demonstrate the inability or unwillingness to commit capable forces in the region that can act as a military deterrent based on China's current capabilities. Besides, the US obligations in Europe (with the open wound of Ukraine in so far as the objective of decisively crushing - together with the sanctions - Russia, forcing it into regime change and forced Western access to its wealth and social structures) and now also in the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea with the expressed absolute commitments to Israel's defence and the unprecedented challenges it poses, in addition to the Iranian proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and at the entrance to the Red Sea and Shiite "militias" in Iraq and Syria, and the first ever direct missile and drone attacks by Iran on Israel. The above forces the USA, in this critical period, to increase the supply of war material - munitions. increasingly technologically advanced, in Ukraine and information personnel and special skills, clearly useful elsewhere, but now - and in particular - to commit very important air forces in the Eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea (commitment of aircraft carriers - 2 or even 3 -, large numbers of aircraft, naval vessels and personnel in field and reserve positions) on a stable, almost permanent basis, especially while the total war of the "final solution" in Gaza - which Israel is pursuing - mobilises powerful countervailing forces, which now also have strong diplomatic, economic, technological and military - if necessary (e.g. in the release of A/A systems etc.) - support from the two other superpowers (China and Russia) which are now in strategic cooperation, challenging Western (US) world domination. The US is forced for an indefinite (long in any case) period of time to commit the lion's share of its air capability to securing Israel from possible missile or drones missile attacks by Iran and their proxies, so as not to find themselves in the - even more - unpleasant position of being forced to get involved in a "burning Middle East" by uncontrolled, Israeli "retaliatory" attacks, a geopolitical nightmare for the US at the present juncture. So the timing seems very good for China, almost ideal. Only problem of China remains the adjustment of its economy and industry from sanctions and disconnection with Western economies and the possible denial of its access to the Pacific through the US strategy of containment through the three island chains, creating three chains of exclusion of China from the great "peaceful" sea! But China seems willing to take that risk. A risk that holds enormous opportunities for geopolitical gains. Especially because: As we have analysed above, the circumstances seem favourable. The denial of China's access to the Pacific and the sanctions raise the comparative question of who will be hurt more: the West or China? China has been significantly prepared for this since 19ο Congress of the Communist Party of China CPC, what Western analysts saw as ... a reversion to communist rhetoric, a rhetoric that never disappeared in China, simply disappeared for the Westerners from the excess profits created by the opening of the Chinese market (and cheap labour) to their bulimic multinationals. It was the era of euphoria created by the mistaken belief that no one resists super profits and their ... carriers (neoliberalism). But, as the 19ο and the 20th Congress of the CPC, China is not willing to risk its blood-literally earned achievements for the sake of ... the construction industry, the real estate market or the wealthy new capitalists (e.g. on internet platforms). On the contrary, industries and capitalists should be disciplined to the control of the CCP and its certain objectives for Taiwan (reaffirmation at the 20th Congress of China's policy towards Taiwan, development plans in various sectors of the economy, such as biotechnology, green growth, electromobility, digital technology, batteries, infrastructure, transport, shipping, environment, etc. and a solemn reference to China's enormous achievements under the Party's leadership: the unprecedented three decades of uninterrupted growth and the fact that 600 million Chinese citizens have been lifted out of hunger! Achievements that put China back where it belongs. That of the most advanced economy and society, as it was for 100 years, before the "European parenthesis" and the century of their national humiliation, starvation and foreign intervention. That is over. The sacrifices have paid off. Now national self-confidence is expressed in the economy, but also in diplomacy and military power if necessary. The need for adaptation has now changed its place at the table. It jumped to the opposite side. At the same time, its strategic relationship with Russia enables her to, for the first time since the beginning of the reforms of the legendary Deng Xiaoping, the General Architect of the Chinese revolution, access to unrestricted energy and critical raw materials and decoupling from supplies from US-controlled regions. At the same time, China is the largest buyer-consumer of energy and the largest seller of industrial products and alternatives to the West, in all technologies critical to the development of a state. The disconnection of China from these markets will increase the pressures on the US and the availability of developing relations with it (at the cost of Western influence in these regions). The Russian-Chinese alternative, which does not ask about ... human rights violations or form of governance may be more attractive to many. When the floodgates open, indeed for the second time after Ukraine, nothing will remain the same, even for the resourceful Ulysses and his companions. The strategic relationship with Russia and other emerging powers through the new Silk Road, offers possibilities for land-based bypasses of sea routes, where these will be problematic. And all this while as early as 19ο congress of the Communist Party of China openly has programmed its resilience to eventual disconnection and relative decoupling from and exports to Western economies, developing the domestic market and emerging markets of former third world countries, limiting and bringing the oligarchs under party control, planning and achieving technological dominance in selected strategic sectors (biotechnology, green technology, renewable energy, electric vehicles (not only civilian but also military). Such is the integration of new technology in the military defence industry (AI, drones, missile technology especially hypersonic - e.g. anti-ship version of the YJ hypersonic missile, but long-range missiles e.g. Dong Feng 26 5 km missile that puts even Guam within range, or strike in the Pacific aircraft carriers, robotic systems, electric military vehicles, net-centric capabilities, etc., and these in unrivalled quantities, ensured by its manufacturing industry which considers that its eventual confrontation with the US will be the first confrontation where "the silicon based lifeform defeats the carbon based lifeform". Because further, the Chinese economy is extremely important for the global economy, the pressure of the neoliberal business elites will be enormous on their governments, as they will not be able/willing to stay out of the Asian market for a long period of time for rapprochement with China. But disrupting supply chains by replacing parts only where possible at higher prices and shortages of cheap products from Western consumer markets will also intensify the pressure for a softer approach to China. Even the green transition, the trademark of Western elites and multinationals, seems to have the fate of another of their intellectual property products: globalisation (globalization): as globalisation has benefited, albeit Western-inspired, China in a privileged way, due to the unprecedented and unpredictable pace of growth and development of industrial production, in principle, but also of services now, so the green transition, due to the dominance of certain technologies and low production costs (no longer due to low labour costs) will also benefit China and other former third world economies. But in any case, China will be the one with the smallest losses and the biggest gains, based on the rationale we have developed and is close to the their geopolitical approach to the inevitable crisis. Besides, Western control over the neo-colonial dependence of the third world and with the Russian and Chinese finger has been reduced. So even there the West can no longer find the ELDORANT it needs (its multinationals) for profit increases through the overexploitation of the third world and their technological-productive backwardness. Nuclear deterrence, in a strange game of fate, with the mutually assured destruction of the opponent, also sets the limits of competition. Without being able to exclude the use of a nuclear weapon in a regional conflict, a more general use is excluded (there is no monopoly). In any version, therefore, the West, according to the Chinese perspective, will eventually have to recognise its regional sovereignty, settle for a smaller share of the world's wealth and a more democratic distribution of it. It will also recognise a new global institutional system, already being formed in bilateral talks with Russia, within the BRICS, etc., which will reflect the new balance of global power that is now inevitably moving the centre of gravity of the world from Europe to Asia. So for China the questioning of the current global architecture seems inevitable. *Dionysis Pantis, Athens lawyer, geopolitical analyst This article was published in the Independent Balkan News Agency (IBNA) the independent news agency focusing on the wider region of Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean at the following link: https://www.ibnaeu.com/2024/06/01/i -prosengisis-rosias-kinas-kathista-oukrania-kai-taivan-sygkoinonounta-docheia/ ** The views published on IBNA are solely those of the authors.