What is Russia seeking in the war with Ukraine?

NOTE: THIS ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED ON Independent Balkan News Agency (IBNA) in Greek, English, Turkish and Bulgarian at the link below https://www.ibnaeu.com/en/2024/03/31/ti-epizita-i-rosia-ston-polemo-me-tin-oukrania/ IBNA offers the necessary extroversion to geopolitical thought/discussion at a regional level (Balkans, Eastern Europe, Eastern Mediterranean) reflecting wider global trends. What is Russia seeking in the war with Ukraine? The ambassadors of China, Turkey and Kazakhstan have, according to press reports, issued an urgent announcement - warning to immediately evacuate the areas of the capital Kiev, Kharkiv in Eastern Ukraine and Odessa on the Black Sea. Given the Ukrainian defeat of the ambitious Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Ukrainian problems in terms of military material and human resources and the Russian attribution of responsibility/involvement also to the Ukrainian side for the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall/Theatre, fears are being raised for a new Russian attack in Ukraine. The objective Russian goals seem to be - both from Russian statements and from the geopolitical analysis and objective material constraints and the analysis of the power factors of the conflict - the Russian promotion and possible annexation of the territories south to Transnistria, covering the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coastline, including Odessa, and westward advances aimed at creating a physical border between Russia and Ukraine on the Dnieper River. Apart from the fact that Transnistria has called on Russia to guarantee its security and the existence of a Russian army there, the huge cold war stores with plenty of military material are important. This military hardware may be considered obsolete, but the lessons learned from the Russo-Ukrainian war, operation or whatever one wants to call it, show that this is not important and old weapons systems can be put to regular use. Particularly if accompanied by air superiority, in the context of network-centric tactical operations supported by satellite or intelligence via overhead AWACS or field surveillance drones or all of these together. Otherwise they will have the fate of the Iraqi tanks ... But when this condition exists, as in the case of the Ukrainian tactical field, where the Russian side has secured these conditions, these weapons systems are immediately usable. It goes without saying that a trained and determined human factor and industrial infrastructure are needed for the necessary modifications, but these conditions are not a new factor, they have been in place since the beginning of the industrial warfare celebrated in World War II and are still required. Russia's occupation of the entire Black Sea coastline ensures the operation of the Russian navy in the Black Sea, which suffered heavy losses from Ukrainian missile or drone attacks, and restores the historical "Russianness" of Odessa and the region, according to Russia. The advance to the West with the capture of Kharkiv, the destruction of the Ukrainian bailiwick in Kiev and the acquisition of natural borders - most easily protected - restores territorially the administrative units annexed to Russia, gives Russia a defensive advantage and incorporates areas with critical industrial technical infrastructure. At the same time, the three axes (Kiev, Kharkiv, Odessa+), if implemented, will deal a blow to Ukraine's general ability to defend itself by creating a physical shield in the areas of western Russia that have been affected by Ukrainian actions recently, either through blind attacks with MLRS (Vampires) drones or the creation of "rebel" groups within Russian territory. Time will tell, but for now it seems that we have at least 6 full months of business ahead of us without the obstacle of the Russian winter. So, spring and summer are in the offing, fire for Ukraine... * Dionysis Pantis, is a Lawyer and a geopolitical analyst, former to Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs